Hypothesis
A testable explanation for the performance gap identified in the problem statement.
What is a hypothesis
A hypothesis is a testable explanation for the performance gap identified in the problem statement. It represents the team's best explanation for why the student is experiencing the identified area of need and is confirmed or revised as additional information is collected.
A strong hypothesis should:
- Identify the most likely reason the student is not meeting expectations by considering instructions (how we teach), curriculum (what we teach), environment (where we teach), and learner characteristics (who we teach).
- Be based on the available information, not assumptions.
- Be specific enough to be confirmed or revised as additional information is collected.
Remember: A hypothesis is a possible explanation—not a conclusion. Before designing an intervention, gather additional information to determine whether the evidence supports your hypothesis.
Example
Problem Statement
By the middle of fourth grade, students are expected to read grade-level passage at approximately 120 words correct per minute with at least 95% accuracy. Across three recent reading fluency assessments, Emma averaged 84 words correct per minute with 91% accuracy. This represents a measurable gap in reading fluency and accuracy compared to grade-level expectations.
Hypothesis
Based on the available information, the team believes Emma's reading fluency may be below grade-level expectations because she has not yet developed automatic word recognition. As a result, she may be using significant cognitive effort to decode words, reducing her reading rate and overall accuracy.
Notice: This hypothesis identifies one possible explanation for Emma's performance gap. The next step is to gather additional information to determine whether the evidence supports this hypothesis or whether it should be revised before designing an intervention.